JPMorgan Predice Fracaso para ETFs de Solana: Proyecta Menos de $1,500 Millones en Primer Año

Los grandes bancos vuelven a subestimar el potencial crypto.

Pronóstico Conservador

JPMorgan lanza otra predicción bajista sobre criptomonedas, afirmando que los ETFs de Solana enfrentarán dificultades significativas. El gigante bancario proyecta entradas inferiores a $1,500 millones durante el primer año - una estimación que muchos en el espacio crypto consideran excesivamente pesimista.

Análisis del Mercado

Mientras los tradicionalistas de Wall Street continúan aplicando métricas convencionales a activos digitales, la comunidad de Solana demuestra un crecimiento orgánico que desafía las proyecciones tradicionales. Los números hablan por sí mismos, pero los banqueros parecen sordos a lo que escuchan.

Realidad vs. Pronóstico

La desconexión entre las instituciones financieras tradicionales y el ecosistema crypto se hace más evidente con cada predicción. Los mismos que dudaban de Bitcoin ahora subestiman a Solana - porque claro, los banqueros siempre han entendido la innovación disruptiva, ¿verdad? Al final, el mercado decidirá, no los pronósticos de quienes llegaron tarde a la revolución digital.

Solana ETFs to see less than $1.5 billion net inflows 

The analysts warned that the figure could be lower. They cited weaker investor perception of Solana compared to Ethereum as the main DeFi/smart contract crypto, declining on-chain activity, such as falling active addresses since November 2024, and the dominance of memecoin trading on the Solana network. 

They also pointed to investor fatigue from multiple launches and competition from diversified crypto index products such as those tied to the S&P Dow Jones Indices Digital Markets 50. 

JPMorgan also noted weak demand signs, as evidenced by the pricing of Solana futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), as well as demand for corporate funds, which could also lead it away from spot ETFs.

JPMorgan said that prices are already highlighting the expectation. The premium to net asset value (NAV) on the Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) has collapsed from around 750% last year to nearly zero, echoing the trends of Bitcoin and Ether ahead of ETF launches. The narrowing mirrors the pattern seen in Grayscale’s Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts before their conversions into spot ETFs, they said.

However, this forecast contrasts with earlier projections from another JPMorgan analyst team led by Kenneth B. Worthington. He estimated earlier this year that Solana ETFs could draw between $2.7 billion and $5.2 billion in net flows within six to 12 months if approved.

Solana ETFs approval expected on Friday

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to decide on roughly sixteen spot crypto ETF applications, including Solana, this month.

The SEC recently simplified the process by introducing generic listing standards, removing the need for token-specific filings. This change has led to a surge in new crypto ETF proposals. The final deadline for spot Solana ETFs is approaching, and approval is widely anticipated.

“The strong likelihood of approval for Solana spot ETFs is reinforced by the fact that there is an already established futures contract at CME,” JPMorgan analysts said. 

Polymarket bettors are also very optimistic, placing the odds of a spot Solana ETF in 2025 at over 99%. Additionally, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analysts estimate a 100% approval probability, citing regulatory clarity and the change in leadership at the SEC. 

The agency is expected to decide on nine spot Solana ETF applications, with deadlines for filings from VanEck, Canary, Fidelity, Grayscale and Franklin Templeton approaching on Friday. Applications by Bitwise and 21Shares are expected to undergo final reviews by October 16. 

Meanwhile, the price of Sol has declined by roughly 1% over the last 24 hours, now trading at $219.68. The coin has also tanked by 2.69% over the last 7 days. 

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