Trump vs. Powell: La Batalla por el Dólar que Nadie Esperaba

Ray Dalio destapa el pulso económico del siglo: Trump busca debilitar el dólar mientras Powell intenta salvarlo.

Subheader: El dólar como campo de batalla

Dalio revela la tensión entre la Casa Blanca y la Fed—una pelea que podría redefinir el mercado financiero global. Trump apuesta por un dólar más débil para impulsar las exportaciones, mientras Powell defiende la estabilidad monetaria como un guardián de Wall Street.

Subheader: Las fichas se mueven en secreto

Fuentes cercanas al hedge fund de Dalio sugieren que ambos bandos están movilizando recursos fuera de los reflectores. ¿Una señal para que los inversores diversifiquen hacia activos digitales? Los traders ya susurran sobre Bitcoin como 'el refugio perfecto' en esta guerra fría financiera.

Cierre provocador: Mientras los titanes chocan, el pequeño inversor sigue pagando el pato—como siempre.

Trump pushes devaluation while Powell resists it

“This argument is more intense,” Ray says, even though debates between government and central banks are routine. Usually, central bankers “lean against the wind.” They try to find a balance between too much easing and too much tightening.

Ray lays it out: when times are calm, the president wants happy voters and the central banker wants stable money. When things get rough, the president wants even more money printing, and the central banker starts losing control. That’s what’s happening now. Trump wants a cheaper dollar. Powell is trying to stop that slide.

Then the question becomes: what should the Fed be doing? Ray says look at the data.

Market indicators? “They are clearly saying that money is now easy and that the economy is not in trouble.” He points to stocks, credit spreads, and real interest rates.

“Over the last year, the U.S. stock market was up 14%, is now at its all-time highs, and by most measures is expensive.”

That’s not normal. That’s a signal that money is cheap.

“The dollar was down 5% against a basket of other major currencies, down 27% against gold, and down 45% against Bitcoin.” Again, this isn’t stability. That’s market confidence fading.

Credit spreads? “BAA-rated corporate spreads are now trading around 1% above Treasuries.” That’s historically tight. It means everyone expects money to stay cheap.

“Real interest rates are relatively moderate and normal at a bit over 2% at the 10-year level.” That’s low. Not tight enough to defend the dollar.

Dalio sees risks rising and the dollar getting weaker

Economic indicators aren’t screaming trouble, but they aren’t perfect either. “The unemployment rate is at a relatively low 4.1% and slowly trending higher.” That means jobs are still strong, but weakening.

“Tech, especially investments and revenues in AI, is booming while sentiment and real estate are weak.” So, there’s a split; big tech’s flying, but the average American isn’t.

Ray adds that “the global economy is relatively weak.” So even if the U.S. is hanging in there, the rest of the world isn’t helping.

Looking forward? He says the path is full of risk. “There are great uncertainties and risks related to the debt and trade issues, politics, and geopolitics that all have an inflationary bias.” But at the same time, “there are great technological advances that are deflationary and will tend to increase wealth gaps.”

Ray says defending the value of money is a thankless job. “Defending monetary discipline, like defending fiscal discipline, isn’t a popular thing to do because it is de facto telling people that they need to have financial discipline.”

Nobody wants to hear that. But the stakes are high. “One man’s debts are another man’s assets.” That’s not theory. That’s your money. If the Fed caves, your savings lose value. And that’s not going to be fixed by speeches.

He asks the key question: “Will the value of money be defended?” And his answer? Not likely.

“Judging from the lessons of history and current readings, I think that it is clear that the value of money won’t be defended until the classic weak money/inflation problems become intense, and perhaps not even then.”

He brings up the 1970-1982 period, where inflation ran out of control and real rates had to be pushed sky high just to stop the bleeding. That’s the kind of pain it takes before monetary tightening is taken seriously.

“So, while maybe that tightening will happen sometime in the distant future, it’s virtually certain that it won’t come soon.” That’s Ray’s warning. Don’t expect Powell to slam the brakes unless things totally fall apart.

Until then, Ray has an advise take: “One should keep betting on weak money (i.e., the dollar going down, and low and falling real interest rates).”

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