¡Récord histórico! El S&P 500 evita caídas del 2% durante 107 días consecutivos, la racha más larga desde julio de

Los mercados tradicionales muestran una resiliencia inusual—mientras las criptomonedas siguen su propia volatilidad característica.

ESTABILIDAD ANÓMALA

El índice bursátil más vigilado del planeta acaba de completar 107 sesiones sin sufrir una caída del 2%. Una racha que no se veía desde hace más de un año—desde julio de 2024 para ser exactos.

Los analistas se rascan la cabeza ante esta persistente estabilidad. Los algoritmos de trading funcionan a máxima capacidad—aprovechando cada mínimo movimiento mientras los inversores retail observan con escepticismo.

¿MERCADO MADURO O BURBUJA DISFRAZADA?

Las instituciones financieras celebran esta calma inusual—justo cuando los reguladores aumentan la presión sobre activos digitales. Curioso cómo los mismos que predican sobre la 'madurez del mercado' ignoran que 107 días de tranquilidad histórica huelen más a complacencia que a solidez real.

Mientras tanto, Bitcoin y Ethereum continúan su danza volátil—recordándonos que los mercados eficientes son como unicornios: todos hablan de ellos pero nadie los ha visto realmente.

Los traders veteranos susurran sobre correcciones pendientes—esa molesta tendencia de los mercados a recordarnos que la gravedad financiera siempre termina por actuar. Porque en Wall Street, como en la vida, los períodos de calma perfecta suelen preceder a las tormentas más violentas.

Traders ignore Powell’s caution and pour billions into stocks

“There’s a lot of willingness for investors to shake off any bad news, for now, but complacency is a risk to the stock rally,” said Julie Biel of Kayne Anderson Rudnick. She added, “If inflation rises more than traders expect in the coming months, that may force the Fed to not cut rates as much as investors hope.” Basically, hope is driving this market, not logic.

Even the highest unemployment rate since 2021 didn’t shake anything. The S&P 500 has hit 28 record highs this year through Monday. Powell sounded cautious again this week, but traders don’t care. They’re almost fully pricing in a 0.5% rate cut for 2025. And they believe the worst of Trump’s trade policies are over. Throw in some AI profit hype, and boom, stocks fly.

Bank of America and EPFR Global said fund managers dropped nearly $58 billion into U.S. stocks during the week ending September 17, the biggest inflow this year. Traders are acting like rate cuts are guaranteed. The risk is that the Fed dials back expectations and Wall Street gets blindsided.

Short-covering and VIX bets show risky optimism building

September typically drags for stocks. Not this time. The S&P 500 is up 3% so far. Goldman Sachs’ basket of the most shorted names is up 14%, heading for its best September since 2010, as data shows that this is likely a wave of short-covering as investors scrambled to reposition before the Fed’s latest rate signals.

Goldman’s short basket now sits at its most overbought level since early 2021, the height of the meme-stock chaos. Back then, Reddit traders sent junk stocks flying for no reason. That kind of overheating usually leads to a pullback.

VIX is another story. The so-called fear gauge is sitting well below its 10-year average and under the key 20 level, a line that usually triggers nerves. Traders are acting like nothing can go wrong. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said net short positions on the VIX hit 102,000 contracts through September 16. That’s close to August 2022 levels.

Chris Murphy of Susquehanna said the market might pause soon, but it won’t last. “There’s still a lot of room for the S&P 500 to still keep grinding higher,” he said. “Euphoric sentiment is nowhere near extremes and skepticism is pervasive. That’s a good thing for stock bulls.”

Unprofitable tech stocks are another piece of this mess. UBS said its basket of money-losing companies is up 21% since July’s end. The profitable tech basket? Up just 2.1%. Nasdaq 100? 5.9%. This group of speculative names (including SoundHound AI and Unity) is now near its highest level since late 2021. That was during the pandemic zero-rate boom before the bubble exploded.

But the rally isn’t bulletproof. The same unprofitable group dropped 2.1% Tuesday after Powell’s warning. Even with two more cuts, interest rates would stay above 3%, way above pandemic lows. That matters for these firms, because they run on borrowed cash and far-off profit dreams.

Goldman Sachs tracks a similar junk-tech basket that has nearly doubled since April. It’s now at its highest since February 2022. Names like OpenDoor, IonQ, and Lemonade have jumped between 50% and 280%. SoundHound and Xometry are also up big. But the size of this move still doesn’t match the 2020–2021 insanity, when the basket gained 420%, and lost most of it later.

Even now, Goldman’s tracker is 50% below that 2021 peak. Some investors think this surge is more rational. But if the economy slows down, these cash-burning firms will get crushed harder than their profitable rivals. For now, the S&P 500 keeps moving higher. But under the surface, the risks are growing.

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