Oil Plummets: Why Top Analysts Still See Crude Soaring Past $100

Warning: crude oil prices are crashing, but don't bet on cheap energy lasting long. Brent crude tumbled below $84 a barrel Monday, its lowest since March, after Trump announced a surprise US-Iran peace deal over the weekend. The sharp slide extended Friday's rout from $93 to $87.50 on deal hopes alone. Yet despite today's surface calm, major bank forecasts still place crude well above $100, as the actual physical supply impact from any Iran deal won't materialize for months. Iranian officials confirmed a 60-day negotiation window for a final agreement, leaving the Strait of Hormuz risk far from resolved.

Brent Crude Prices, Strait Of Hormuz Risk And Oil Market Outlook

What Drove The Drop In Oil Prices This Week

Oil prices fall every time a peace signal comes out of Washington, and this week was no different. Brent crude oil prices dropped another 4% Monday morning in Asia-Pacific markets, building on a slide that started Thursday at $93 a barrel. Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi told reporters that a memorandum of understanding “,” and a senior Trump administration official put the probability of signing at around 80%. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also said ship traffic through the Strait was “,” which gave markets another reason to sell.

Still, UBS analysts led by Henri Patricot said there is “” of any short-term improvement in vessel traffic or actual energy flows through the region, and that crude loadings inside the Gulf remain “.” The oil price today reflects optimism, not barrels actually moving.

Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG, stated:

Why The Crude Oil Price Forecast Stays Above $100

The Strait of Hormuz oil risk cut off around 14 million barrels per day from global markets since early March, taking out exports from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait all at once. Gulf producers managed to reroute about 5 million barrels a day through alternative pipeline hubs, and the US military helped move a further 2 million barrels a day through dark tankers. The International Energy Agency also released emergency reserves at roughly 2.5 million barrels per day to keep things from spiraling. None of that fully plugged the gap, and global inventories now sit near multi-year lows.

Barclays kept its full-year 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast at $100 per barrel and warned that risks lean higher. In a note carried by Reuters, Barclays analysts wrote:

JPMorgan also forecast that Brent crude will stay above $100 for the rest of 2026, even if the Strait reopens right now, citing inventory restocking timelines and infrastructure repair needs. The US-Iran oil deal impact, even under an optimistic scenario, plays out slowly.

How Long Before Oil Supply Actually Recovers

Rystad Energy estimated the crisis cut around 1 billion barrels from the market so far. Even a June peace deal, the consultancy said, points to a phased reopening from mid-July at the earliest. Rystad stated:

Oil prices fall on headlines, but the structural picture tells a different story. Brent crude oil prices will stay under pressure from depleted inventories and peak summer demand, and the crude oil price forecast from major institutions has not shifted. The US-Iran oil deal impact remains months away from showing up in actual supply, and the Strait of Hormuz oil risk, at the time of writing, is still very much live for the oil price today.