Bitcoin Smashes $106K – Will Fed Policy or Iran-Israel Conflict Fuel the Next Rally?

Bitcoin just bulldozed past $106,000—another all-time high in its relentless climb. But now, the market holds its breath: Will macro forces ignite the next surge or trigger a pullback?

The Fed''s next move looms large. Rate cuts could send institutional capital flooding into crypto—while delays might spook traders eyeing risk assets. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions threaten to disrupt global markets, creating the kind of volatility Bitcoin thrives on.

Traditional finance pundits (still waiting for that ''imminent collapse'') scramble to explain how an ''unbacked gamble'' keeps printing generational wealth. Meanwhile, the rest of us stack sats.

Bitcoin’s fourth attempt at directional clarity

At press time, bitcoin posted a 1.31% intraday jump, not just reclaiming $106k but extending its wick to $107,263.

More critically, Binance’s order book is showing nearly 60% of BTC/USDT perp traders skewed short, building a clear liquidity pocket above.

Bulls have the setup laid out, but until they punch it through, BTC’s stuck in this high-leverage chop zone. If a squeeze kicks off, $110k is the level to watch, marking the fourth attempt to break into price discovery.

So far, though, each breakout has been short-lived, with macro jitters dragging things back just before the structure can confirm.

Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)

That said, the odds of another volatility grab are even higher. 

With two days left until the FOMC, markets are leaning toward a rate pause, backed by May’s softer data prints. But fresh geopolitical risk now complicates that setup.

Conflict between two major oil-producing nations has reignited inflation concerns, adding pressure to risk assets. Bitcoin wasn’t spared. It took a 7% hit last week, retracing back to $102k.

Technically speaking, BTC’s current push back to $106k is unfolding within the same structural pattern that preceded the last three failed breakout attempts.

Consequently, weakening the odds for bulls to break the cycle and push Bitcoin into price discovery toward a new all-time high.