Cardano ETF decision nears—Will it help ADA break $1?

• ADA’s Trading Volume has seen a notable increase, signaling renewed investor interest amid anticipation of the SEC’s ETF decision.
• Despite a price rebound, ADA remains below key resistance levels.

With the SEC’s decision on a potential ADA ETF looming, Cardano’s[ADA] on-chain activity is drawing increased attention.

The market is watching closely to determine whether the recent uptick in ADA volume and Total Value Locked (TVL) signals renewed investor confidence or short-term speculation.

On-chain metrics show mixed signals

Data from DefiLlama revealed a notable increase in Cardano’s trading volume over the past few months, peaking in December before declining.

At the time of writing, daily trading volume stood below $10 million, significantly lower than its highs of over $30 million late last year. 

Source: DefiLlama

This decline suggests waning transactions on the network and a decline in activity.

Cardano’s TVL, on the other hand, remains strong despite fluctuations. The metric peaked above $700 million before pulling back to approximately $500 million. 

Source: DefiLlama

While this dip may raise concerns, it still represents a substantial improvement from mid-2024 levels when TVL hovered around $200 million.

This suggests that Cardano’s DeFi ecosystem is holding firm despite market-wide uncertainty.

ADA price attempts recovery

ADA’s price has been on a recovery trajectory, trading at $0.8082 at press time.

The 50-day Moving Average(MA) at $0.8335 remained a key resistance level, while the 200-day MA at $0.9289 was well above the current price, reinforcing a longer-term bearish trend.

Source: TradingView

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sat at 53.10, indicating that ADA is neither overbought nor oversold.

This neutral stance suggests the asset could move in either direction depending on market catalysts.

What’s next for ADA?

The SEC’s decision on the ADA ETF could be a major catalyst for the asset. A favorable ruling could trigger institutional interest, pushing ADA’s price toward $1.00. Conversely, if the ETF is denied or delayed, ADA could struggle to maintain momentum.

In the short term, traders should watch for a break above $0.8335 to confirm bullish momentum. If rejected at this level, further consolidation NEAR $0.77 or lower is likely.

With increased on-chain activity and a pivotal regulatory event ahead, ADA remains a high-stakes asset to watch in the coming weeks.