Bitcoin’s Market Cools Off—Here’s Why the $100K Floor Still Matters in 2025

Bitcoin's bull run hits a pause—but don't mistake a cooldown for a collapse. The $100K support level isn't just psychological armor; it's the make-or-break zone for the next leg up.

Why $100K isn't just another number:

Institutional whales treat it like a Fibonacci retracement holy grail. Retail FOMO? Still lurking. And let's be real—after 2024's 'halving hype' failed to moon the charts immediately (*gasp*), the smart money's playing the long game.

The cynical take? Traders need this narrative to justify their leveraged positions while quietly praying the Fed doesn't 'accidentally' crash the party again.

Source: Adler crypto Insights

In the weekly Adler Insights post, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr brought up the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase. The metric, also called Heat Phase Index, combines four key signals to understand the market’s “heating.”

The four signals are the normalized MVRV Z-score, the aSOPR 14-day simple moving average, the LTH-STH cost basis, and the 10-day moving average of the ETF FLOW in dollars.

A peak rating of 0.45 came about on the 22nd of May, when Bitcoin made its high at $111k. The index cooled to 0.39 by the 5th of June, when the price saw an accumulation phase around $101k.

At the time of writing, the value of 0.41 indicated demand resumption and normal levels of market activity. If the Heat index falls below 0.39 in the coming days, it WOULD be a sign of an extended cooling phase.

A Bitcoin drop below the $100k mark, combined with a reading of 0.39 or lower, will change the current bullish expectations and instead signal that the market was in a corrective phase.

Source: CryptoQuant

So far, despite the cooling market and stalled momentum, long-term holders have continued to accumulate.

The selling pressure was nothing like November-December 2024- quite the opposite, as holders were happy to continue to HODL.

The spot taker CVD for the past 90 days showed that the taker buy volume was dominant. It was another sign that the bulls have hope for recovery.

The geopolitical situation meant that a sustained bull trend could take time to materialize.