Copper Surges Past $11,581.50 After Citi’s Bold $13,000 Q2 Forecast

Copper just punched through a major price barrier—and one Wall Street giant says this is just the warm-up act.

The Analyst Call That Lit the Fuse

Citi's research desk isn't whispering. They've gone public with a forecast that sees the red metal averaging a staggering $13,000 per ton in the second quarter. That's not a hopeful nudge; it's a siren call to the entire commodities complex. The immediate market reaction was a textbook momentum spike, sending prices soaring past the $11,581.50 mark. When a bank of that size talks, capital listens—and often overreacts, just for good measure.

Beyond the Headline Number

Forget gentle slopes. This move hints at a market pivoting from speculation to pricing in tangible, structural tightness. It's a bet on industrial demand, green energy infrastructure, and supply chains that can't keep pace. The volatility isn't a bug; it's a feature, shaking out weak positions and attracting a new wave of capital. It’s the old finance playbook: create a forecast dramatic enough to move the market, then profit from the movement you just predicted.

The Road to Thirteen Grand

Hitting that $13,000 average won't be a leisurely stroll. It implies sustained bullish pressure, a tolerance for pullbacks, and a fundamental story strong enough to drown out macroeconomic noise. Every dip will be framed as a buying opportunity, every rally as validation. The trade shifts from 'if' to 'how high' and 'how fast.'

So, is Citi's target a self-fulfilling prophecy or genuine insight? In today's markets, the difference is often academic. The price target is now out there, hanging over the trading pits like a challenge. The metal has its marching orders. Let's see if the real world decides to follow them.

Mercuria moves metal out of LME warehouses

The strain in the system showed up in warehouse activity. Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. ordered about $500 million worth of copper to be taken out of London Metal Exchange storage, which is the biggest cancellation of stock in more than ten years, but also does match the tightening outlook laid out by Citi.

Max said the analysts had “conviction in copper upside through 2026 supported by multiple bullish catalysts, including an incrementally constructive fundamental and macro backdrop.”

Meanwhile, Macquarie Group analysts led by Peter Taylor said in a Thursday note that the metal could still hit fresh highs but added that prices above $11,000 a TON are not sustainable because the physical market is not tight enough.

They pointed to the surge in exchange inventories, which surged above 656,000 tons, the highest since 2018, with nearly two-thirds held in Comex warehouses in the U.S. The call lined up with comments from Goldman Sachs, which said earlier this week it does not see a real shortage until 2029.

Traders track moves in gold, oil, and Fed expectations

While copper held strong, Gold is struggling, as traders locked in profits and waited for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.Gold futures slipped by 0.3% to $4,220.10 per ounce and spot gold eased 0.3% to $4,190.13.

The World Gold Council said it expects prices to rise between 15% and 30% in 2026. A Reuters poll of 39 analysts and traders had placed the median 2025 forecast at $3,400 per troy ounce, up from $3,220 in July, with expectations for an average of $4,275 in 2026.

Energy markets inched higher. Brent crude traded 0.3% higher at $62.85 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate ROSE 0.4% to $59.16. Traders reacted to new Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil sites, which raised concerns about supply at a time when peace talks stalled.

Anyway, rate expectations stayed central across all markets. The CME FedWatch tool showed traders fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut that WOULD bring the federal funds rate to 3.75% to 4%, with another cut expected in December.

A separate Reuters poll that was taken between November 28 and December 4 found 82% of economists expecting the same 25-basis-point reduction at next week’s meeting. Cryptopolitan expects lower interest rates to help economic activity and raise oil demand.

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