Powell könnte im September die Zinsen senken, da die Wirtschaft schwächelt

Fed-Chef Powell steht vor einer Zinswende – die Wirtschaftsdaten zwingen ihn zum Handeln.

Die Bremsen lösen

Abkühlende Konjunktursignale und nachlassende Inflation öffnen die Tür für eine lockere Geldpolitik. Märkte wittern schon lange den ersten Cut – jetzt scheint der Zeitpunkt gekommen.

Was das für Anleger bedeutet

Günstigere Kredite, steigende Assets und eine willkommene Entlastung für verschuldete Unternehmen. Traditionelle Anlagen könnten profitieren, aber auch riskantere Wetten bekommen Rückenwind. Typisch: Die Notenbank rettet wieder mal die Stimmung – nicht die Substanz.

Hammack reiterates Fed’s independent mission

The Fed’s key short-term rate, which helps set costs for mortgages, auto loans, and other credit, stands at 4.3%. Trump has urged a drop to 1%, a level unsupported by any Fed policymaker.

Whatever the path, the central bank is expected to keep stressing its independence. Economists widely see an arm’s-length Fed as vital to keeping prices in check because it can raise rates to cool the economy when elected leaders might not.

Nineteen officials serve on the Fed’s rate-setting committee, with 12 voting at each meeting. Beth Hammack, the Cleveland Fed president, reinforced that view Friday in an interview with the Associated Press.

“I’m laser focused … on ensuring that I can deliver good outcomes for the for the public, and I try to tune out all the other noise,” she said.

Hammack said inflation still needs to be fought, a view several colleagues share. “Inflation is too high and it’s been trending in the wrong direction,” she said. “Right now I see us moving away from our goals on the inflation side.”

Powell avoids independence talk, draws strategic praise

Powell did not mention independence in his Wyoming remarks, where he received a standing ovation from academics, economists, and central bank officials from around the world.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that omission likely served a purpose. “The not talking about independence was a way of trying as best they could to signal we’re getting on with the business,” Posen said. “We’re still having a civilized internal discussion about the merits of the issue. And even if it pleases the president, we’re going to make the right call.”

As that debate played out, Trump stepped up pressure on another senior Fed figure.

He warned he would dismiss Governor Lisa Cook if she refused to step down. Bill Pulte, Trump’s pick to head the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, alleged Wednesday that Cook engaged in mortgage fraud tied to her 2021 purchases of two properties. No charges have been filed.

Cook said she will not be “bullied” into stepping down. On Friday, she declined to address Trump’s threat.

If Cook were removed, Trump would have a chance to place a loyalist on the Fed’s governing board, whose members vote on every rate decision. He has already put forward WHITE House economist Stephen Miran to fill the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler, who left on Aug. 1.

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