Nur Christopher Waller und Michelle Bowman unterstützten Trumps Drängen auf Zinssenkungen beim Juli-Treffen der Federal Reserve

Fed-Sitzung im Juli: Zwei Stimmen gegen den Strom

Während Trump auf Zinssenkungen drängte, blieben Christopher Waller und Michelle Bowman seine einzigen Unterstützer im Gremium. Der Rest des Fed-Teams zeigte sich unbeeindruckt von politischem Druck - was selten genug vorkommt in einer Institution, die normalerweise jeden politischen Wind mit ausgeklügelten PowerPoint-Präsentationen überdauert.

Klare Kante oder politisches Kalkül? Die beiden Dissidenten positionierten sich deutlich gegen die Mehrheitsmeinung. Waller und Bowman machten kein Hehl aus ihrer Haltung und stellten sich offen hinter die Forderungen des ehemaligen Präsidenten.

Das Ergebnis: Eine 2:9-Entscheidung, die zeigt, wie isoliert Trumps Einfluss auf die Geldpolitik tatsächlich ist. Die Fed beweist einmal mehr, dass sie sich nicht so einfach von politischen Parolen beeindrucken lässt - auch wenn manch einer in Washington das Gegenteil hofft.

Tariffs and inflation uncertainty cloud Fed’s rate path

Tariffs were a major point of discussion in the meeting. Trump’s latest wave of trade actions, particularly on China and European goods, created additional inflation concerns inside the central bank.

“Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants pointed to the uncertain effects of tariffs and the possibility of inflation expectations becoming unanchored,” the Fed minutes said. Officials admitted there was “considerable uncertainty” about how strong or lasting the impact of the tariffs might be.

Internally, the Fed’s own staff described economic growth during the first half of 2025 as “tepid,” even though the unemployment rate remained low at the time of the meeting. But some participants saw early signs of weakness building in the jobs market and in consumer spending data.

Several Fed officials noted that “some incoming data pointed to a weakening of labor market conditions,” and warned that the “downside risk to employment had meaningfully increased.”

The discussion happened just two days before the Bureau of Labor Statistics released fresh payroll figures. Those numbers showed job growth in July remained weak, and previous months—June and May—were revised sharply downward, confirming that the labor market had softened more than initially believed.

The minutes also noted that if inflation were to stay elevated while the labor market kept weakening, the Fed WOULD face “difficult tradeoffs.” Rate decisions going forward would depend on “each variable’s distance from the Committee’s goal and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

Trump tightens grip on Fed as Powell prepares Jackson Hole speech

The July meeting minutes were released two days before Powell is expected to deliver a major speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming. Powell’s address is expected to offer hints on the Fed’s short-term direction on interest rates, as well as how the board views long-term policy options going into 2026.

But Powell isn’t just facing pressure from the markets. TRUMP is stacking the Fed with his own picks. Governor Adriana Kugler resigned earlier this month, giving Trump another opening to fill the board with an ally. The president has already gone after Governor Lisa Cook, demanding her resignation over accusations of mortgage fraud tied to federal housing loans she received for real estate in Georgia and Michigan.

Powell’s term as Fed Chair ends in May 2026, but he can legally stay on as a board governor until 2028. Even so, Trump and his economic team have begun floating names to replace him. The White House has identified 11 candidates, a mix of former and current Fed officials, economists, and Wall Street strategists.

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