Gold und Bonds im Fokus: Investoren flüchten vor Doppel-Stagflationsrisiko des Dollars

Der Dollar stolpert – und die Märkte reagieren mit klassischen Sicherheitsplays.

Stagflations-Alarm: Während die US-Währung unter Inflation und Wachstumsflaute ächzt, greifen Anleger zu bewährten Hedges. Gold glänzt wieder als Krisenmetall, Staatsanleihen boomen als vermeintlich sicherer Hafen.

Doch Vorsicht: Die 'sicheren Häfen' von gestern könnten die Fallstricke von morgen sein. Schließlich performte Bitcoin im letzten Stagflationsschock 2022 besser als beide Assetklassen – aber wer erinnert sich schon an Fakten, wenn die Panik greift?

Global stocks could drop if the U.S. economy slows

Caroline Shaw, a multi-asset manager at Fidelity International, said the firm expects U.S. growth to cool and lists stagflation as one of its two CORE scenarios. She remains positive on large U.S. technology names but in mid-July bought put options designed to profit if the more cyclical Russell 2000 small-cap index (RUT) falls.

Equities elsewhere WOULD likely weaken even if stagflation were confined to the U.S. Since 1990, world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) have declined by an average of 15% when U.S. manufacturing reports showed both contraction and higher-than-average prices, said Michael Metcalfe, State Street’s head of macro strategy.

For now, shares keep rising. Metcalfe says investors think “the disruption to the global trading system isn’t going to disrupt big tech earnings.” Man Group chief market strategist Kristina Hooper said markets are leaning toward the positive and downplaying weaker signals.

“It’s like parenting, you only want to see the best in your children, and we’re at a stage where it’s possible for markets to do that,” she said, describing the current mood.

Nabil Milali, multi-asset and overlay portfolio manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, said the data point to stagflation in the U.S., and he expects more dollar weakness versus the euro.

Investors turn to gold, bonds as dollar faces double stagflation risks

Stagflation creates two problems for the U.S. dollar. Slower growth can weaken a currency, and high inflation reduces how much it can buy in other countries. This year, the euro has gained over 12% against the dollar. The yen and British pound have also gotten stronger.

Stagflation could offer one more reason to add gold, already a common refuge for investors, said Man Group’s Hooper. Other inflation shields may appeal too, such as short-dated inflation-linked bonds, said Foresight Group’s Markanday.

Eitelman said many professionals are using tools such as inflation swaps, contracts that gain value when price indexes surpass a set level. The U.S. two-year inflation-linked swap is close to its highest point in more than two years.

Want your project in front of crypto’s top minds? Feature it in our next industry report, where data meets impact.