Markt blickt gespannt auf Juli-Protokolle und Powells Jackson Hole-Rede – Druck für Zinssenkungen wächst

Die Finanzmärkte halten die Luft an: Alle Augen sind auf die Fed-Protokolle vom Juli und Powells Auftritt in Jackson Hole gerichtet. Die Erwartungen an geldpolitische Lockerungen werden immer lauter – aber wird die Zentralbank liefern?

Die Wette auf Zinssenkungen erreicht neuen Höhepunkt. Während die Inflation langsam zurückgeht, drängen Investoren auf eine Kehrtwende der Fed. Doch Vorsicht: Die Notenbanker haben schon öfter die Erwartungen gedämpft, wenn der Markt zu gierig wurde.

Jackson Hole wird zum Lackmustest. Powells Rede könnte den Kurs für den Rest des Jahres vorgeben – oder die Märkte wieder einmal bitter enttäuschen. Wie immer bei der Fed: Vertrauen ist gut, Kontrolle wäre besser. Aber wer kontrolliert hier eigentlich wen?

Can Powell calm the storm?

On Monday, Zelensky will meet Trump, who is still pushing for a rapid peace deal. Ukrainian President seems to be walking a tightrope while defending the nation’s survival. He will be trying to avoid another Oval Office showdown with Trump. 

But geopolitics isn’t the only thing markets are watching. On Wednesday, the Fed will release minutes from its July meeting. This will provide a deeper look at how divided officials are over the path of interest rates. Investors are betting on cuts next month, but the central bank remains caught between tariff-driven inflation and weakening labor data.

Thursday will come with the August flash PMI figures. This is expected to be the first real test of how Trump’s fresh tariffs are filtering into the US economy. With global PMI data due as well from Europe, Japan, and Canada, traders will be able to check whether the slowdown is spreading. 

Friday is all set for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech. The stakes are even higher as Trump wants him out, and markets want a clear roadmap for easing. Powell is looking at an economy caught in the crossfire of trade wars and political pressure. However, he could use the speech to calm nerves and confirm cuts, or he could keep markets guessing. Either way, his words will set the tone for weeks to come.

Institutions are buying the dip

The digital assets market saw some mixed signals over the week as institutions were scooping, but retail investors looked away from it. Data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETFs recorded 2 weeks of back-to-back inflow in August. The first week saw $246.75 million coming into the funds. The second week was even higher as it recorded $547 million of inflow.

Bitcoin price remained marginally stable over the last 7 and 30 days. BTC is trading at an average price of $118,408 at the press time, up by 27% on YTD.

Ethereum turns out to be outperforming Bitcoin in ETF inflows and in the market as well. The first week of August posted $326.83 million of inflow for Ether ETFs. The second week went on to hit a new record of inflow with $2.85 billion. Ethereum price surged by more than 7% over the last 7 days and 25% over the past 30 days. ETH is trading at an average price of $4,537 at the press time.

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