Materialsektor: Gewinne könnten 2026 um ~20% steigen – US-Zölle stärken Preisgestaltung

Die Preisschraube wird angezogen. Neue US-Zölle verleihen Materialherstellern unerwartete Macht – und könnten die Gewinne im Sektor 2026 um rund 20 Prozent nach oben treiben.

Die neue Kalkulation

Importbarrieren schaffen ein geschützteres Umfeld. Lokale Anbieter gewinnen plötzlich Spielraum, ihre eigenen Preise anzupassen, ohne sofort von billigerer ausländischer Konkurrenz unterboten zu werden. Die Märkte konsolidieren sich zugunsten der etablierten Player.

Ein klassischer Fall von politischer Lenkung, die direkt in die Bilanz durchschlägt. Die Zahlen sprechen für sich: Das erwartete Plus von etwa 20 Prozent bei den Erträgen ist kein Zufall, sondern direkte Folge dieser handelspolitischen Weichenstellung. Ein Geschenk des Staates an die Aktionäre, könnte man zynisch anmerken – während die Verbraucher am Ende die Rechnung sehen.

Die Branche steht vor einer Phase der Neubewertung. Wer jetzt seine Kosten im Griff hat und von den höheren Margen profitiert, schreibt die schwarzen Zahlen. Ein Lehrstück darüber, wie Regulierung Märkte verformen und Gewinnpotenziale freisetzen kann. Ob das nachhaltig ist? Die Börse feiert es erstmal.

Steelmakers prepare for backlog boost as tariffs drive prices

Richard Bourke from Bloomberg Intelligence said tariffs on imported steel are giving U.S. producers more control over pricing.

“U.S. mills should continue to displace imports as long as 50% Section 232 tariffs remain in place,” he wrote. These are the same Trump-era levies still shaping trade today.

Nucor, which Bourke called the U.S. mill with the widest product range and some extra capacity, reported a strong order book for 2026. It pointed to projects in energy, infrastructure, data centers, and manufacturing as key drivers.

In a December update, the company said existing policy should lead to “continued gradual improvement in business conditions.”

Steel Dynamics also flagged a larger backlog.

The company expects lower interest rates to help push up infrastructure spending and bring more production back to the U.S. Bourke explained that many of the orders in play are lag contracts, meaning the money won’t show up until next year.

The packaging sector isn’t having the same smooth ride. Tariffs here are more of a burden, but some companies are getting help from their clients. General Mills and PepsiCo have been promoting products more aggressively, which means higher volume. Truist’s Michael Roxland said this trend has boosted Amcor and similar suppliers.

Jefferies analysts believe easier year-over-year comparisons and a slow return of consumer confidence could help the sector in the second half of the year.

But right now, it’s tight. RBC’s Matthew McKellar said mills in North America are already NEAR full capacity, which could support a price hike.

Packaging, chemicals, and construction firms shift strategy for growth

Packaging companies are reacting with internal changes. Amcor CEO Peter Konieczny said the company plans to meet its 2026 targets using synergies, not economic improvement. The company sees adjusted profit growth of 12% to 17%, its best in five years.

Still, the overall picture in packaging is messy. Growth from food producers hasn’t extended to other customers, so firms are turning to cost cuts and plant closures to manage softer demand and economic drag. International Paper, which had Four years of declining profits, now expects a turnaround.

But the company isn’t upbeat. Executives told an industry event in December that demand is still weak. They blamed inflation, trade pressure, and the sluggish housing market.

“In North America, we still feel very tight from a supply-demand perspective,” said CFO Lance Loeffler. “All we need is a little bit of spark on the demand side, and I think it would be really good for business.”

Outside packaging and metals, the remaining materials sub-sectors are hoping for a rate-cut lifeline. Chemicals are forecast to finally grow after three rough years. The same goes for construction materials, which dropped in 2025 but are set to rebound.

Sherwin-Williams is ready to benefit if home sales pick up, said Citigroup’s Patrick Cunningham. Albemarle is also expected to gain ground thanks to higher lithium prices from rising demand in energy storage.

For construction stocks, like CRH, falling interest rates could lower borrowing costs and push more projects forward. BI analyst Sonia Baldeira said this could help unlock residential and commercial construction deals stuck in limbo.

Every piece of this puzzle points to a rare winning streak for the materials sector, one fueled by tariffs, backlogs, tighter supply, and cost cuts.

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