BTC erholt sich nur langsam: Monate bis zur Normalisierung des Open Interest nach Liquidierungen
Bitcoin kämpft mit den Nachwehen massiver Leverage-Liquidierungen - der Open Interest braucht Quartale, nicht Wochen, um sich zu erholen.
Die große Bereinigung
Als der Markt die überheblichen Hebelpositionen ausspuckte, hinterließ er ein Trümmerfeld von Liquidierungen. Jetzt steht BTC vor dem mühsamen Aufbauprozess - der Open Interest zeigt, wie tief die Wunden wirklich sind.
Monate statt Wochen
Vergessen Sie schnelle Erholungen. Die Daten sprechen eine klare Sprache: Institutionelle Vorsicht und regulatorische Kopfschmerzen verzögern die Rückkehr der großen Spieler. Selbst die optimistischsten Prognosen sehen erst 2026 eine vollständige Normalisierung.
Die neue Realität
Trader lernen schmerzhaft: In einem Markt, der traditionelle Finanzierungsmodelle verachtet, überleben nur die Disziplinierten. Während die Banker ihre Excel-Tabellen aktualisieren, schreiben Krypto-Veteranen schon die nächste Kapitulationsstufe.
Die Ironie? Genau wenn die Wall-Street-Jungs aufgeben, beginnt BTC通常 seinen nächsten Aufwärtstrend - klassische Finanzlogik adé.
BTC open interest fell sharply after months of accumulation, erasing 30% of positions and deleveraging most markets. | Source: Coinglass
Rebuilding leverage for BTC usually takes three to six months. The current panic is also tied to the notion that BTC conforms to trading cycles, and the bull market may be overdue for a correction.
BTC recoveries also remain fragile, as the coin failed to hold above the $111,000 range. BTC fell back to $107,773, following another round of long liquidations.
BTC saw smaller liquidations
BTC derivative trading is still active, though with smaller daily liquidations. Following the recent market downturn, BTC saw $84.71M in long liquidations. ETH had over $87M in long liquidations after another dip under $3,900.
BTC is still rebuilding liquidity on the downside and on the upside. After the latest downturn, short positions accrued around $111,000, below their previous range of $114,000.
One of the hopes for a market recovery is a short squeeze to a higher range. However, whale selling, retail panic or other factors may sway the market toward long liquidations.
On-chain analysis shows Binance hot wallets are moving BTC to other exchanges, possibly creating selling pressure. Previously, transactions from Binance’s hot wallets have coincided with dramatic price moves for BTC.
BTC buying returns with caution
BTC is trading with caution, as the fear and greed index moved to 34 points. Recent data showed the week after October 10 saw a bias toward selling, based on selling taker volumes.
After October 17, the market switched once again to buying, based on taker volumes. Derivative markets remain slightly in favor of sellers and bearish positions.
BTC traders are now divided on whether the coin has reached its market top. Based on halving cycles and historical trends, the BTC peak was indeed achieved in October, and the expectation is for a bear market to last for months or years.
For others, BTC is trading on a different logic, and four-year cycles are not as meaningful. BTC markets are more dependent on derivative trading and overall liquidity, rather than a connection to new coin production.
Additionally, spot ownership has changed its structure. Following the market peak for BTC, buyers kept holding coins in accumulation wallets. Spot sellers in all wallet cohorts are holding onto their BTC despite the recent market downturn.
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