Chinas Immobilienmarkt in der Krise: S&P Global verschärft Rückgangsprognose

Der chinesische Immobiliensektor steckt tiefer in der Krise als je zuvor - S&P Global hat seine Negativprognose noch einmal nach unten korrigiert.

Abwärtsspirale beschleunigt sich

Was als vorübergehende Korrektur begann, entwickelt sich zunehmend zu einem strukturellen Problem. Die Ratingagentur sieht keine kurzfristige Erholung am Horizont.

Dominoeffekte befürchtet

Experten warnen vor Auswirkungen auf verwandte Sektoren - von Baumaterialien bis zur Innenausstattung. Die traditionelle Anlageklasse verliert weiter an Glanz.

Während Immobilien straucheln, suchen Anleger verzweifelt nach Alternativen - vielleicht erklärt das den Hype um digitale Assets. Aber hey, wenigstens kann man Cryptos nicht einreißen.

China’s property market weakens as policy easing slows

S&P pointed out that China’s five-year loan prime rate, which serves as the reference point for most home loans, has only dropped by 0.1% in 2025 so far. That compares to a much larger 0.6% cut throughout 2024, suggesting authorities aren’t loosening policy as forcefully as they did before, even with the housing sector still struggling.

Last August, three of the country’s biggest cities relaxed rules that had limited how many properties people could own. But these changes mainly affected homes in less attractive outer areas of cities, according to S&P’s analysis.

“If demand can be stabilized first in the higher-tier cities, particularly in the first-tier [largest] cities first, that would probably help the trajectory of the demand recovery to be more sustainable,” Chan noted.

The prospect of hitting bottom in China’s housing crisis now appears further away than before. At the current projection of 9 trillion yuan or below for this year, China’s property market will have shrunk by half within Four years, down from 18.2 trillion yuan back in 2021, S&P’s figures show.

The firm anticipates an additional 6% to 7% drop next year, with home prices in the primary market falling 1.5% to 2.5%.

Government support fails to lift weak housing demand

For many years, Chinese homebuyers typically purchased apartments before construction finished. When developers hit money troubles and building work stalled, buyer confidence took a hit. This led authorities to create a “whitelist” last year to provide funding for approved unfinished developments.

By August, unsold housing stock rose to 762 million square meters, from 753 million square meters in December 2024, according to S&P data.

Chan said the government has been working hard to assure people that receiving their apartments is no longer a problem. He explained that the real issue is overall demand across the country appears weaker than anticipated.

Looking ahead, Chan believes authorities will continue stepping in with support measures, even if gradually, whenever the market shows signs of weakness.

Last August brought both the easing of some purchase restrictions and a notable public statement from Chinese Premier Li Qiang acknowledging the ongoing real estate problems and the need for greater action.

The month after that, sales among China’s top 100 developers increased 0.4% compared to the same period a year earlier, S&P reported, citing industry figures.

While developers fight to stay afloat, the report suggested that “the result may be a smaller market, but also a healthier and more resilient sector.”

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