Schwellenländer setzen rekordverdächtige Siegesserie auf 10 Monate fort

Historischer Bullenlauf trotzt globalen Wirtschaftswinden

Die Schwellenmärkte schreiben gerade Finanzgeschichte – mit einer beeindruckenden 10-monatigen Aufwärtsspirale, die selbst erfahrene Trader in Staunen versetzt. Während traditionelle Märkte mit Zinsängsten kämpfen, demonstrieren diese dynamischen Ökonomien pure Widerstandsfähigkeit.

Monat für Monat brechen die Kennzahlen neue Rekorde

Von Brasilien bis Indonesien, von Indien bis Mexiko – die Performance gleicht einer gut geölten Kryptomining-Operation: kontinuierlich, effizient und profitabel. Die Zahlen sprechen eine klare Sprache, während sich westliche Märkte mit regulatorischer Unsicherheit herumschlagen.

Ein Lehrstück in wirtschaftlicher Agilität

Während sich etablierte Volkswirtschaften in bürokratischen Fesseln verheddern, beweisen die Schwellenländer, dass Geschwindigkeit und Anpassungsfähigkeit die neuen Währungen des globalen Handels sind. Das erinnert stark an die frühen Tage von Bitcoin – niemand glaubte an den Erfolg, bis es zu spät war.

Die große Frage: Wann platzt die Party?

Jeder Bullenmarkt trägt den Samen seiner eigenen Zerstörung in sich – aber kluge Investoren wissen: Die Musik spielt solange, bis die Zentralbanken den Stecker ziehen. Und momentan tanzt noch die ganze Welt.

Capital flows shift as AI and dollar weakness collide

Meanwhile, money managers are ditching the old playbook, as the weakening dollar is making U.S. assets less attractive, thanks to Donald Trump’s hawkish trade stance that has investors looking for safety elsewhere.

“The weakening of the US dollar has been a big driver,” said Sammy Suzuki of AllianceBernstein. “EM stocks are no longer simply banks, commodities and telecom. Tech, consumer, and medical sectors with more intellectual property content occupy much larger weights today.”

In short: EM’s 31% year-to-date rally in the MSCI gauge marks the biggest annual surge since 2017. And naturally, AI-related stocks are doing half the heavy lifting.

This little change in earnings power and sector dominance is why even firms like Morgan Stanley are now saying it’s the start of a multi-year rally in emerging markets.

The MSCI benchmark trades at a 39% discount, way down from the 45% discount at the start of the year, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios. That’s cold, hard multiple compression.

Trump-Xi truce triggers risk-on mood across global markets

This month’s rally didn’t just come from tech and earnings. It got a final push from TRUMP and Xi Jinping’s latest meeting, which ended with a temporary trade truce. No major details were shared, but the tone was enough to spark a rally.

“The bottom line is that even though there have been little incremental detail, the optimistic tone of President Trump and the announcement of trade deals have helped remove some uncertainty this week, which has further fueled risk-on sentiment in equities globally,” wrote Citigroup strategist Rohit Garg.

Japan’s stock market was first to react. On Friday, the Nikkei 225 rose over 1%, hitting a new record, and the Topix added 0.79%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.22%, notching another record after Thursday’s surge.

The Kosdaq rose 0.47%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 opened up 0.45% higher. China’s CSI 300 stayed flat, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.33%.

Over in the U.S., Big Tech earnings helped fuel Thursday night’s stock futures. Dow futures rose 17 points, the S&P gained 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1%. Weekly and monthly gains followed. S&P 500 is up 0.45% this week.

The Nasdaq has jumped 1.6%, and the Dow rose 0.7%. For October, the S&P is up 2%, the Nasdaq gained 4.1%, and the Dow is ahead by 2.4%, putting the Dow on track for six straight months of gains, a feat not seen since 2018.

On the African front, Nigeria made its own waves. The country slapped a 15% import duty on refined petroleum products. It’s a protectionist move, meant to shield local refiners. The market response was cautious, but investors are now watching Nigerian assets more closely as the impact plays out.

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